New Delhi.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is arriving in India on Thursday for a two-day visit. This marks his first visit to India since the commencement of the Ukraine war. Here, he will participate in the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. Ahead of the visit, speaking at an investment forum in Moscow, Putin stated that relations with New Delhi would be strengthened through various joint projects across the energy, industrial, space, agricultural, and other sectors.
The timing of Putin’s visit can be described as extremely delicate. India faces persistent pressure from Washington to halt purchases of Russian oil and to open its market to American energy products and other goods. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that Putin’s visit will focus on efforts to bolster energy security, ensure stability in defense supply lines, and sustain bilateral trade amidst the pressure of Western sanctions.
**Three Pillars of Bilateral Relations**
According to Ajay Srivastava, founder of the think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s current engagement with Russia rests on three pillars: energy, defense, and diplomacy. Energy occupies the top spot in the relationship between the two nations. Russia has emerged as India’s largest supplier of crude oil, accounting for 30–35% of India’s total oil imports. Defense constitutes the second pillar; Russia supplies and services the majority of India’s frontline platforms—including fighter jets, submarines, tanks, and air defense systems.
The third pillar involves diplomatic coordination through multilateral bodies such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eastern Economic Forum. Additionally, the two nations collaborate in the fields of nuclear energy, space, fertilizers, and connectivity. Although India is deepening its ties with Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo, it continues to view Moscow as indispensable to its strategic autonomy.
**One-Third of Crude Oil Imports from Russia**
Due to the sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war, the country has become India’s largest oil supplier. Until 2021, Russia was a minor supplier for India. Annual crude oil imports from the country barely amounted to $2–3 billion, accounting for a mere 1–2% of India’s total oil basket. However, this situation changed rapidly in 2022. That year, imports surged to $25.5 billion, and Russia’s share of India’s crude oil imports rose to approximately 15%. Due to sanctions, Russia was selling its crude at a discount. The following year, in 2023, imports from Russia climbed further to $48.6 billion. Russia’s share of total imports stood at 34.6%. Russia thereby surpassed even the traditional Gulf supplier nations. In 2024, imports from Russia increased yet again to $52.7 billion, and its share of total crude oil imports reached 37.3%. Thus, in just three years, the very framework of India’s energy security underwent a transformation.
**Heavy Reliance on Russia in the Defense Sector**
India’s defense ties with Russia are deep-rooted and span several decades. Approximately two-thirds of India’s military hardware is of Russian origin. During Putin’s visit, India is expected to discuss accelerating the delivery of the S-400 Triumph system, as well as securing spare parts and upgrades for its Russian-origin platforms. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has stated that the sale of S-400 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems may be a topic of discussion during Putin’s visit. Peskov noted that Russian-made weaponry constitutes 36% of the Indian military’s arsenal, a trend that is expected to continue. Discussions are also anticipated regarding the possibility of India acquiring Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter jets. Furthermore, an agreement on nuclear energy is also considered likely; according to Peskov, Russia intends to offer small-scale nuclear reactors to India.
**Payment Mechanisms in Trade with Russia**
The payment mechanisms governing trade between the two nations are undergoing rapid de-dollarization. Following Russia’s partial exclusion from the SWIFT system, payments began to be settled in various currencies. These included the Dirham (60–65%), the Rupee (25–30%), and the Yuan (5–10%). Approximately ₹60,000 crore in payments currently lie deposited in select Indian accounts—funds that Russia is unable to utilize. Consequently, Russia now prefers to settle transactions using the UAE Dirham, a currency it can easily spend or convert. The Yuan is used only occasionally. According to Srivastava, “For India, the challenge lies in maintaining a strategic balance—preserving its autonomy while navigating the pressures from Washington and its own dependence on Moscow.”
**Trade Balance Tilts in Russia’s Favor**
India’s merchandise trade with Russia is heavily imbalanced. Despite an increase in bilateral trade volume, the trade relationship remains one-sided. India exports a mere $5 billion worth of goods to Russia annually, whereas energy imports account for a staggering $64 billion. India’s exports to Russia rose from $4.3 billion in 2023–24 to $4.9 billion in 2024–25. In the current fiscal year, exports totaled $2.25 billion during the April–September 2025 period.
India’s export basket to Russia is limited, consisting primarily of a few industrial and chemical goods. While exports of pharmaceuticals and machinery from India to Russia remain robust, shipments of garments, electronics, and consumer goods are negligible. During the first half of the current fiscal year, India’s exports consisted mainly of machinery ($367.8 million), pharmaceuticals ($246 million), and organic chemicals ($165.8 million). Exports within the consumer goods category remain marginal. India has exported smartphones worth $75.9 million, Vannamei shrimp worth $75.7 million, meat worth $63 million, and garments worth $20.9 million.
Regarding imports, in 2023–24, India imported goods worth $63.2 billion from Russia, which rose slightly to $63.8 billion in 2024–25. Imports totaling $31.2 billion were recorded during the April–September 2025 period. This includes…
